Aaron Haskins & Hugo Malan, Kelly Science, Engineering, Technology & Telecom
When people talk about the impact of AI on jobs, it’s usually framed as a future problem. But for programmers, that future might already be here.
Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. employment in computer programming fell by more than 26%, a major decline over just two years. The Washington Post recently highlighted the drop, noting it coincided with the public rollout of ChatGPT and other generative AI (GenAI) tools capable of writing basic code on demand.
This trend raises a big question: if GenAI can automate so much of programming, what happens to other tech roles that depend on similarly codified, repeatable tasks?
Programming Is Just the Beginning.
The broader IT sector hasn’t fallen off a cliff. Overall, employment is still growing, and high-skill roles like Information Security Analysts and Database Architects have seen significant gains. But the gap between different roles is widening fast.
Web Developers and Digital Designers are down nearly 11%. Computer Support Specialists are down 7.4%. Network and Systems Administrators have declined more than 10%. These jobs haven’t seen the same scale of decline as programming, yet. But they share a key characteristic: work that is increasingly exposed to automation via GenAI.
If programmers are the canary in the coal mine, these roles could be next.
Yes, the Economy Matters, but It’s Not the Whole Story.
Macroeconomic conditions like rising interest rates, tighter investment flows, and an industry-wide shift toward efficiency over growth have all contributed to a cooler labor market. And we can see that in the numbers: overall IT employment growth has slowed from about 4.6% annually before 2022 to just 1.4% since. But that only explains part of the story.
The chart below shows what’s happening under the surface. While both software developer jobs and overall IT employment have continued to rise, just at a more modest pace, programmer jobs have gone in the opposite direction. And fast.
From 2017 to 2022, programmer employment was already declining slightly, averaging about 2.6% per year. But after Q4 2022, when GenAI tools like ChatGPT entered the mainstream, the trend suddenly accelerated. Programmer jobs are now falling at a 14.3% annual rate, more than five times the prior pace of decline. Software developers, by comparison, have simply seen growth slow (from 7.4% to 3.6%), while IT employment overall has grown slightly (about 1.4% per year).
This kind of sharp divergence doesn’t line up with a simple economic pullback. If it were just about cost-cutting or reduced investment, we’d expect to see broader declines and more consistent effects by roles, especially among those so closely related as programmers and developers. Instead, we see a massive shift in demand for one specific role: one that just happens to be directly exposed to GenAI automation.
How GenAI Changes the Game.
Programming has been hit hard and fast because GenAI is now very good at the kinds of tasks that used to define the job: like writing boilerplate code, debugging basic functions, or scaffolding simple applications. What once required a team of junior coders can now be done by one experienced engineer with a prompt and an AI assistant.
But that same kind of automation is starting to seep into other areas.
- Web development and design: Tools like Wix AI, Framer AI, and Figma plugins are making it easier to generate web sites, landing pages, and UI mockups without traditional design workflows.
- Support specialists: AI chatbots and automated help desks are now handling a growing share of troubleshooting, ticketing, and user assistance tasks.
- System administrators: Cloud platforms increasingly manage permissions, backups, and infrastructure as code—all functions once handled manually.
In each of these cases, GenAI doesn’t eliminate the need for people, but it reduces the number of people needed by making each individual significantly more productive, allowing employers to maintain output levels with smaller teams. And that shifts labor demand fast.
The Skills That Will Matter Most Going Forward.
The roles that are growing, like security analysts, systems architects, and advanced developers, tend to involve complex judgment, business alignment, or adversarial thinking. These are areas where GenAI still struggles. In contrast, roles with high task exposure and low creative or strategic content are more vulnerable, as work previously done by large teams can now be done by a handful of skilled experts with AI assistance.
For workers, this is the time to pivot: from execution to oversight, from output to design. If the future of your current role consists of smaller teams augmented by AI, increasing your creative problem-solving skills and learning to leverage AI can help ensure you’re one of those who stick around in this new reality, versus those who fail to adapt and end up being replaced. Or start looking for a new role entirely, in one of those areas GenAI won’t be replacing any time soon.
For employers, the lesson is to stop thinking of GenAI purely as a cost-saving tool and start using it to strategically reshape teams and workflows.
And for staffing companies, it’s time to start thinking about the future of IT labor demand and the types of roles that will see growth, versus those that are likely to decline.
Programming Is the First Clear Case—But Not the Last.
The rapid decrease in programming jobs is the first strong signal that GenAI is already reshaping tech labor markets. But it won’t stop there. Web development, design, support, and administration are all on the same trajectory: heavy exposure to repeatable tasks, increasingly served by AI, and showing early signs of decline. The timeline may vary by role, but the trend is clear.
This isn’t about panic; it’s about preparation. The future of tech work and IT staffing isn’t vanishing. But it’s shifting. And those who adapt early will have the best shot at staying ahead.
Looking for more insight?
Check out ReSETTing Tomorrow, the podcast that's your gateway to the thrilling world of STEM! Join Hugo Malan, President of Kelly Science, Engineering, Technology & Telecom, as he speaks and geeks out with leaders who are at the forefront of innovation.
See our previous article from Aaron Haskins & Hugo Malan, on Shifting Trends: Investigating the US Staffing Industry’s Collapsing Direct Hire Revenue. Another examines a surprising and counterintuitive weakness in US temporary staffing demand: Has Staffing Decoupled from Labor Markets?
Or, see our Kelly Re:work Report page for a video where Hugo addresses the key challenges and opportunities within today's talent landscape, among other focused reports from the survey results.
